We can expect between 14 and 19 named hurricanes instead of the 11 to 14 predicted at the start of the 2017 hurricane season, and there is now a 60 percent chance of above-average hurricane activity this season instead of the 45 percent chance predicted earlier, national forecasters revealed today.
From two to five of those hurricanes could be major, as opposed to the two to four forecast earlier, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in a statement on the administration's web site, www. noaa.gov.
Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, attributed the update in part to the lack of an El Nino and to warmer waters in the tropical Atlantic.
NOAA defines El Nino as a "large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific."
Strong El Ninos suppress the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic, and El Ninos can effect weather patterns and ocean conditions across large portions of the globe for an extended period of time, NOAA said.
An average Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and can produce 12 named storms, of which half can become hurricanes, NOAA said.
According to the administration, we are entering the height of the hurricane season, when hurricanes are strongest and most frequent.
Brock Long, Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA), said the updated storm outlook underscores the need for everyone to know their true vulnerabilities to storms and storm surge. “As we enter the height of hurricane season, it’s important for everyone to know who issues evacuation orders in their community, heed the warnings, update their insurance and have a preparedness plan,” Brock said.
There have been six named storms so far this year: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, and Franklin. The next three named storms will be Gert, Harvey, and Irma.
For more information about this year's hurricanes and hurricane season, go to http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/early-season-storms-one-indicator-of-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-ahead.
From two to five of those hurricanes could be major, as opposed to the two to four forecast earlier, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in a statement on the administration's web site, www. noaa.gov.
Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, attributed the update in part to the lack of an El Nino and to warmer waters in the tropical Atlantic.
NOAA defines El Nino as a "large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific."
Strong El Ninos suppress the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic, and El Ninos can effect weather patterns and ocean conditions across large portions of the globe for an extended period of time, NOAA said.
An average Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and can produce 12 named storms, of which half can become hurricanes, NOAA said.
According to the administration, we are entering the height of the hurricane season, when hurricanes are strongest and most frequent.
Brock Long, Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA), said the updated storm outlook underscores the need for everyone to know their true vulnerabilities to storms and storm surge. “As we enter the height of hurricane season, it’s important for everyone to know who issues evacuation orders in their community, heed the warnings, update their insurance and have a preparedness plan,” Brock said.
There have been six named storms so far this year: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, and Franklin. The next three named storms will be Gert, Harvey, and Irma.
For more information about this year's hurricanes and hurricane season, go to http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/early-season-storms-one-indicator-of-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-ahead.
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