If you were hoping for a normal or below-normal hurricane season this year, you might be out of luck. Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said today that there's only a 20-percent chance of a below-normal hurricane season. There's a greater chance, 45 percent, of an above-normal season, and a 35-percent chance of a normal season.
Forecasters say there's a 70-percent likelihood of between 11 and 17 named storms (storms with winds of at least 39 miles per hour), of which five to nine can become hurricanes (storms with winds of at least 74 miles per hour). Two to four of those hurricanes could become major hurricanes -- category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of at least 111 mph.
NOAA said an average hurricane season has 12 named storms. Six can become hurricanes, and half of those can become major hurricanes.
The forecast includes Tropical Storm Arlene, rare storm that formed in April in the eastern Atlantic, NOAA said.
Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, said the outlook was based on a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean, and average or weaker-than-average wind shear in the same region.
NOAA defines El Nino as a "large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific."
Strong El Ninos suppress the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic, and El Ninos can effect weather patterns and ocean conditions across large portions of the globe for an extended period of time, NOAA said.
In addition to issuing the usual storm and hurricane watches and warnings, NOAA's National Hurricane Center this year will issue watches and warnings for storm surges.
The center also will issue watches and warnings for storms that arn't yet tropical storms or hurricanes but that threaten land with tropical storm or hurricane conditions within 48 hours, NOAA said.
Hurricane season starts on Thursday, June 1, and ends on Thursday, Nov. 30.
Forecasters say there's a 70-percent likelihood of between 11 and 17 named storms (storms with winds of at least 39 miles per hour), of which five to nine can become hurricanes (storms with winds of at least 74 miles per hour). Two to four of those hurricanes could become major hurricanes -- category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of at least 111 mph.
NOAA said an average hurricane season has 12 named storms. Six can become hurricanes, and half of those can become major hurricanes.
The forecast includes Tropical Storm Arlene, rare storm that formed in April in the eastern Atlantic, NOAA said.
Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, said the outlook was based on a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean, and average or weaker-than-average wind shear in the same region.
NOAA defines El Nino as a "large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific."
Strong El Ninos suppress the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic, and El Ninos can effect weather patterns and ocean conditions across large portions of the globe for an extended period of time, NOAA said.
In addition to issuing the usual storm and hurricane watches and warnings, NOAA's National Hurricane Center this year will issue watches and warnings for storm surges.
The center also will issue watches and warnings for storms that arn't yet tropical storms or hurricanes but that threaten land with tropical storm or hurricane conditions within 48 hours, NOAA said.
Hurricane season starts on Thursday, June 1, and ends on Thursday, Nov. 30.
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